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Oscar Handicap 2012: Leading Actor and Actress

By EdwardHavens

February 25th, 2012

Here, we will examine the surprising results of voting patters for Best Actor and Best Actress.

Oscar Handicap 2012: Leading Actor and Actress

(For explanations as to how our scoring system works, make sure to read our first article in the series, Best Picture of the Year, linked at the bottom of this article.)

Best Actor

The Breakdowns
1) If you're not your film's only chance to win, you've won the Best Actor Oscar 31 of the past 33 ceremonies (93.94%). Advantage: Clooney, Dujardin, Oldman, Pitt
2) As long as you're not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcements, you've won 30 of 33 (90.91%). Advantage: Clooney, Dujardin, Oldman, Pitt
3) As long as you're not the youngest nominee, you've won 27 of 33 (81.82%). Advantage: Bichir, Clooney, Oldman, Pitt
4) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 13 of 17 times (76.47%). Advantage: Dujardin
5) The Best Actor winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 25 of 33 (75.76%). Advantage: Clooney, Dujardin, Pitt
6) Those who received the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama have won the Best Actor Oscar 22 of 33 (66.67%). Slight Advantage: Dujardin
7) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 21 of 33 (63.64%). Advantage: Bichir, Clooney, Dujardin, Oldman
8) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 21 of 33 (63.64%). Advantage: Clooney, Pitt
9) Actors working from a screenplay adapted from a previously published work have won 19 of 33 (57.58%). Advantage: Clooney, Oldman, Pitt
10) Those previously nominated for an Oscar have won the Best Actor Oscar 19 of 33 (57.58%). Advantage: Clooney, Pitt

By The Numbers
We see Clooney finishing first amongst a strong line-up of quality performances.
Demian Bichir, A Better Life: -1, -2, +3, -4, -5, -6, +7, -8, -9, -10 (116 for 314, 36.94%)
George Clooney, The Descendants: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9, +10 (219 for 314, 69.75)
Jean Dujardin, The Artist: +1, +2, -3, +4, +5, -6, +7, -8, -9, -10 (177 for 314, 56.37%)
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: +1, +2, +3, -4, -5, -6, +7, -8, +9, -10 (177 for 314, 56.37%)
Brad Pitt, Moneyball: +1, +2, +3, -4, +5, -6, -7, +8, +9, +10 (199 for 314 (63.38%)

Best Actress

The Breakdowns
1) As long as you're not the nominee in the lowest grossing film in this category at the time of the nomination announcement, you've won 31 of the last 33 ceremonies (93.94%). Advantage: Davis, Mara, Streep, Williams
2) The winner of the Golden Globe for Drama has gone to win here 27 of 33 (81.82%). Advantage: Streep
3) Playing an American has helped the winner in this category 25 of 33 (75.76%). Advantage: Davis, Williams
4) As long as you're not the youngest nominee, you've won 25 of 33 (75.76%). Advantage: Close, Davis, Streep, Williams
5) The SAG Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar in the same category 12 of 17 (70.59%). Advantage: Davis
6) Playing a fictional character has helped the winner 23 of 33 (69.70%). Advantage: Close, Davis, Mara
7) The Best Actress winner has starred in a Best Picture nominee 22 of 33 (66.67%). Advantage: Davis
8) First-time nominees in this category have won 18 of 33 (54.55%). Advantage: Davis, Mara
9) Actors working from a screenplay adapted from a previously published work have won 17 of 33 (57.58%). Slight advantage: Close, Davis, Mara, Williams

By The Numbers
All nominees tonight would be deserving of taking home the Oscar, but we see Viola Davis taking the little bald man home.
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs: -1, -2, -3, +4, -5, +6, -7, -8, +9 (112 for 281, 39.86%)
Viola Davis, The Help: +1, -2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9 (169 for 281, 60.14%)
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: +1, -2. -3, -4, -5, +6, -7, +8, +9 (119 for 281, 42.35%)
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady: +1, +2, -3, +4, -5, -6, -7, -8, -9 (148 for 281, 52.67%)
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn: +1, -2, +3, +4, -5, -6, -7, -8, +9 (145 for 281, 51.60%)


All articles in this series:
Best Picture of the Year
Best Director
Best Actor and Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Animated Feature
The Technical Categories